When the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) rolled out its proposed Accreditation and Accountability Framework in June of 2024, they projected 70% of Virginia’s highly ranked K-12 schools would be categorized as Off Track or Needing Intensive Support based on their data modeling. However, the mechanics of that modeling was not released to either the Virginia legislature or the public.
By July 25th, after outcries of disinformation and non-transparency, the estimate was dropped to 61%, again without revealing source data. When that was run up the flagpole but did not fly well, the percentage was dropped yet again.
To requests and FOIAs for more transparency and the data on which the modeling was based, VDOE failed to respond, but did say most recent modeling shows lower failure projections.
On August 29, 2024, the Virginia Board of Education voted to confirm the final rules regarding the Framework without having released the actual data modeling. In September, eight Northern Virginia superintendents requested delays in implementing the changes which will take effect in January of 2025. Similarly, legislators have requested delay.
Finally on November 8, 2024, Governor Youngkin and Superintendent Coons released some data, while complaining about the Virginia Education Associations’ press conference during which once again called for data release. As of November 8th, Youngkin’s projected estimate of Off Track schools stands at 35% of Virginia K-12 schools expected to be Off Track or In Need of Intensive Support.
The modeling dataset released is complex, convoluted, and difficult to decipher, but at least it’s something. The spreadsheet does not answer the question of why the numbers keep changing or why the Governor and his VDOE are so determined to create embedded “gotcha’s” in their Framework. How did the Department’s projections change from 60.1% on the day it was approved in August, to 35% on November 8th? Why did the department’s projections go from 70 to 61, to 40s, to 35 percent? See Governor Youngkin’s Magic Math Part 2 for a deeper analysis.
No explanation has been provided by Youngkin’s VDOE as to why the numbers keep changing. Particularly, we don’t know what in the Framework was changed to alter the outcome projections between August when the Framework was approved and November when the data was released.
We are still left to wonder why schools that were rated best in the country a few months ago and highly rated for years, now are expected to have 1 in 3 schools Off Track. Governor Youngkin never retracted the criticism of Virginia’s public schools he shared after the first release of 70% estimates.
Current review of the actual “Support Framework” (though there is little evidence of “support” for either students or schools in the Framework) does show small changes to adjust the initial Mastery and Growth ratios and some allowance for English Learner growth assessments. However, it does not show substantive changes that would account for the initial projected failure rates, the downward trend, or the continued excessive projections that one in three Virginia schools be Off Track.
One explanation may be that some components of the Accreditation and Accountability Support Framework, such as the 3E Readiness requirements, have never been implemented before. There is no data from which to extrapolate what the success rates will be on the statewide 5th grade and 8th grade portfolios, or on the high school courses required in middle school and college requirements in high school which have never been required before.
In fact, we don’t know what the success rates will be for large scale changes in high school Career and Technology Education (CTE) implementation which will require new staff positions and new private sector-school partnerships. Nor do we know whether counselors’ work load requirements for implementing the prescribed 3E plans for all middle and high schoolers will be successful.
Although there are small added accommodations for English Learner growth, it is not clear whether those adjustments will ameliorate the effects of newly enrolled English learners being counted in testing reports and how they will affect school accountability scores. We have no crosswalk with current English Learner SOL scores to see how those school scores will change. All those questions remain unanswered even after the current data and modeling results were released.
In other words, the Youngkin VDOE is relying on Magic Math to convince Virginians that they have it right this time and that one third of schools are Off Track and in Need of Intensive Support. (Note: “Support” in the Framework context is actually intrusive intervention requirements such as contractual MOUs and supervision).
Instead of this opaque and constantly changing VDOE Framework, 4 Public Education recommends Virginia use solutions we already know will work rather than implementing the VDOE’s plan. For example:
Declare ALL public schools in Virginia in need of the state funding support that would provide the resources and flexibility localities required to supply their children with the Constitutionally required quality education.
Provide the support recommended in the 2023 JLARC Report and provide funding for teachers, English Learners, and Special Education students that would meet or exceed the national average.
Once real solutions have been implemented, then VDOE and the Governor can try again to run the numbers, because Virginians are done with their magic sleight of hand with our public education dollars and students.
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